CLIMATEWIRE | The White House is dismissing claims from Democrats and ex-NOAA officials that its reductions in weather and disaster funding played a role in the deadly Texas floods, which claimed over 100 lives.

Nevertheless, this position ignores a critical fact: Much of President Donald Trump’s extensive cuts to the funding, personnel, and scientific resources of these agencies have not yet taken effect.

Experts in climate science and weather forecasting have cautioned that once Trump’s policies are fully implemented, different regions across the nation could be exposed to new hazards as essential federal initiatives deteriorate. These include disaster alert systems, satellite data, flood control funding, and disaster relief. The Trump administration aims to slash $163 billion from the federal budget next fiscal year, marking it as one of the smallest in modern history.

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“People will lose their lives, and property will be destroyed,” stated Rick Spinrad, a former NOAA administrator under President Joe Biden.

On Monday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt called Democrats who linked Trump’s reductions at the National Weather Service to the recent floods “depraved and despicable.” She affirmed that the relevant offices were fully operational. However, records from NOAA show that both offices had unfilled critical roles.

A spokesperson from the White House budget office denied that Trump’s budgetary decisions could influence disaster outcomes.

“It is unfortunate that during ongoing recovery efforts, some are trying to gain political advantage by blaming budget reductions unrelated to the current issues, such as the Green New Scam,” stated Rachel Cauley.

Despite the extensive cuts across the National Weather Service, part of NOAA, the weather forecasts and warnings for the disaster were precise.

However, the accuracy of such forecasts and warnings could deteriorate as Trump pushes forward with his plans, according to former senior NOAA officials and climate researchers.

Already, hundreds of NWS personnel have been laid off, leaving gaps in crucial meteorological positions that provide warnings for impending severe weather. The core operations of the agency are already suffering. Additionally, billions more are set to be cut from budgets of agencies involved in weather and climate forecasting and planning.

These cuts include eliminating entire sections dedicated to atmospheric research at NOAA, half of NASA’s science division, laboratories studying extreme weather conditions, operational weather satellites, and thousands of scientific roles.

The depth of cuts proposed by the Trump administration to weather prediction and science is so severe that current forecasts, like those for Texas, could soon outshine future predictions, Spinrad warned.

“If you’re concerned about the quality of that forecast, then you should be extremely troubled by the potential elimination of the National Severe Storms Laboratory,” Spinrad emphasized, referring to a critical NOAA laboratory targeted for closure. “Our capacity to enhance forecasts and provide guidance on responding to such events will only worsen, ending decades of progress in these areas.”

This includes vital tools for flood prediction and recovery, setting the stage for potentially more severe consequences when extreme rainfall occurs.

Compromised Flood Predictions

At the forefront of the proposed cuts is the potential shuttering of NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, which oversees scientific research on topics ranging from severe weather to marine ecosystems. “This office provides crucial scientific insight and analysis for meteorologists nationwide,” said Tom Fahy, legislative director of the union representing NWS employees.

OAR supports a network of NOAA labs and 16 science consortia involving numerous research institutions across 33 states. These entities conduct critical research on severe weather phenomena, ranging from hurricane studies in Miami to severe thunderstorm studies in Norman, Oklahoma. They also contribute to the development of weather models critical for predicting events like the Texas floods.

Trump’s proposed budget cuts would also cripple key tools for real-time weather observation: our satellites in space.

The planned NASA budget slashes would significantly reduce funding for satellites essential for weather forecasting and future climate modeling. Several targeted satellites are currently operational. NASA’s $7 billion science division faces a 50% reduction, with cuts primarily affecting climate research.

Thus, the capability to predict future floods—and develop new tools for forecasting intense rainfall—would be significantly impaired.

For instance, the next iteration of the Landsat satellites, which have been pivotal for nearly 50 years in monitoring and mapping floods, is at risk. Their data is crucial “for assessing risk, determining the scope of damage, and planning recovery after disasters,” according to NASA.

Recently, Trump administration officials archived the Landsat account on X (formerly Twitter) and removed information about planning for Landsat Next, the tenth satellite in the series, from its website.

Weather forecasts improve as scientists integrate more data, but they are likely to plateau—or even decline—as NOAA’s research and observation capabilities disappear, as many experts fear.

“OAR’s research has been phenomenal in developing computational models that assist in forecasting these types of events,” mentioned John Sokich, former NWS director of congressional affairs, referencing the Texas floods. However, he warned that if Congress does not reinstate funding for the office by 2026, “that progress will halt.”

Some of the agency’s most accurate models for flood prediction could be compromised sooner rather than later.

The government’s precise forecasts of the devastating floods were enabled by a suite of high-resolution NOAA weather models designed to predict thunderstorms, explained Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA, during a live YouTube discussion on Monday.

Having multiple models in the system allows scientists to evaluate a range of outcomes when severe weather looms. NOAA had once considered consolidating these models into a single forecasting system, raising concerns among meteorologists about its potential effectiveness. This change was postponed, but Trump intends to revisit the consolidation plan.

“There’s value in maintaining multiple models,” Swain noted. “What’s the real cost of keeping them compared to the potential costs of missing a catastrophic flood?”

‘A Disconnect’

Meanwhile, staffing reductions at NWS offices nationwide are expected to gradually impact operations, experts predict.

NWS offices were adequately staffed during the Texas floods, partly because agency leaders called for an “all hands on deck” response to the crisis, according to Fahy. Nonetheless, these offices still have vacancies in key positions, including a permanent meteorologist-in-charge in San Angelo and a warning coordination meteorologist in San Antonio.

Similar staffing shortages are evident in other offices across the country, raising concerns about potential burnout—which can lead to forecasting errors—among staff working extended hours during disasters.

Simultaneously, Trump has reduced funding for activities that facilitate meteorologists’ engagement with local officials.

Warning coordination meteorologists, key figures at NWS offices, act as liaisons with emergency managers and other officials, participating in meetings, conferences, and planning exercises for extreme weather events. Trump has halted travel funding for these activities, Fahy noted, which could result in long-term communication and collaboration breakdowns between forecasters and their communities.

“They need to be able to do this,” Fahy stated. “It is a fundamental aspect of their role, which involves disseminating their message effectively.”

According to Fahy, the vacancies at NWS offices in Texas did not cause issues during the deadly floods. However, some experts are concerned that these gaps contributed to a disconnect between the severity of the weather forecasts and how local authorities communicated the risks to the public.

“There was clearly a disconnect—the message didn’t reach the people who needed it when they needed it, or they didn’t understand it,” Swain said.

He added that the science was accurate during the floods. In this instance, forecasters were still able to perform their duties.

But if Trump’s proposed cuts become a reality?

“That will undoubtedly be responsible for costing lives,” Swain asserted.

Reporter Daniel Cusick contributed.

Reprinted from E&E News with permission from POLITICO, LLC. Copyright 2025. E&E News provides essential news for energy and environment professionals.