CLIMATEWIRE | The devastating floods that recently hit central Texas illustrate the point that reliable weather predictions by themselves are not sufficient to prevent loss of life.

Despite the National Weather Service providing timely alerts before the disastrous flooding, meteorologists point out that accurate forecasts are merely one component of a successful emergency response. Local officials must accurately understand and relay these weather alerts to the public and ensure that measures are in place for safe evacuations.

Currently, the death toll stands at over 80, with many still missing in the area as of Monday morning. This includes at least 10 children and one counselor from Camp Mystic, located along the swollen banks of the Guadalupe River.

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Authorities are still trying to determine exactly what went wrong.

“This incident calls for a thorough review, from how the forecasts and warnings were issued to how they were used to make decisions,” stated Louis Uccellini, who is the former director of the National Weather Service. “This will require extensive effort.”

In the aftermath of the flooding, there has been some blame shifting among officials.

Rob Kelly, the top elected official in Kerr County, expressed during a press conference that “we were not aware that such a severe flood was imminent.” In contrast, Nim Kidd, Chief of the Texas Division of Emergency Management, suggested at a different press briefing that the forecasts from the NWS did not provide adequate warning.

However, experts disagree with this assessment.

Meteorologists can predict severe thunderstorms days in advance, but accurately forecasting the precise amount of rainfall and how long the storm will last is challenging when done too far in advance. As a result, forecasts must be continuously updated as new data becomes available.

In the recent flood event, the NWS started to issue increasingly severe warnings as early as Thursday afternoon, with a flood watch put in place and a flash flood warning by 1 a.m. on Friday. More critical alerts followed shortly after.

“Claims that NOAA/NWS did not anticipate the catastrophic floods in Texas are simply false,” stated Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA, in a detailed Bluesky post defending the NWS’s predictions.

Swain further noted that “accurate weather forecasts are essential but not sufficient on their own for saving lives—there’s a substantial amount of additional work needed to ensure those forecasts reach the right people and are acted upon correctly.”

More Than Just Forecasts Needed

There is concern among experts about vacancies in key positions at some local NWS offices in Texas, which were among the hardest hit by the floods.

The NWS office in San Angelo, which covers some of the most affected areas, currently lacks a permanent lead meteorologist. Similarly, the Austin/San Antonio office is missing its warning coordination meteorologist and a science operations officer, according to a June agency vacancy list.

These positions are crucial for bridging the gap between NWS meteorologists and local emergency management teams. Warning coordination meteorologists are particularly vital as they help convert meteorological data into actionable plans that assist local decision-makers and support evacuation efforts.

It’s uncertain if these vacancies impacted the coordination efforts with local authorities during the flood. Senior meteorologists at both the San Angelo and Austin/San Antonio NWS offices did not immediately respond to inquiries about whether these gaps posed any challenges.

However, Tom Fahy, the legislative director of the union representing NWS employees, mentioned in an interview that the staffing shortages did not compromise flood response efforts. He explained that the offices had activated “all hands on deck” to ensure they were fully staffed during the emergency, recognizing the critical nature of the situation.

Erica Grow Cei, a NOAA spokesperson, provided a detailed timeline of the NWS warnings from Thursday to Friday, confirming that the initial flood watch was issued at 1:18 p.m. local time on Thursday, with the first flash flood warning going out at 11:41 p.m. for Bandera County. Subsequently, a more severe flash flood warning was issued at 1:14 a.m. for both Bandera and Kerr counties, which triggered alerts on mobile phones and NOAA Weather Radios.

“The National Weather Service deeply regrets the tragic loss of lives in Kerr County,” Cei stated, reaffirming the agency’s commitment to its mission of serving the public through their forecasts and support services.

Despite these efforts, mobile and radio alerts are not always sufficient to prevent casualties during such disasters. They fail to reach individuals who have disabled their alerts, lack cell service, or do not own radios.

The challenge is even more significant during late-night and early-morning hours when most people are asleep. The most critical warnings for Friday’s floods were issued after 1 a.m., a time when few were likely to hear them.

“The real issue in this disaster was the breakdown in the final step of communication,” Fahy explained. “The forecasts and warnings were issued and communicated effectively. The challenge was that there was no one awake to hear these alerts at 4 a.m.”

Most of the fatalities in Friday’s floods occurred in Kerr County, which, according to Judge Kelly at a news conference, lacks a comprehensive warning system. Other areas in central Texas, like San Marcos, use outdoor sirens to alert residents to severe weather events, as local media has reported.

In an interview with The New York Times, Kelly mentioned that installing such warning systems is costly and “taxpayers are not willing to fund them.”

There are also unanswered questions regarding emergency procedures at Camp Mystic, where at least 11 individuals were still unaccounted for by Sunday afternoon. According to the camp’s website, campers are not allowed to have cellphones, smart watches, iPads, or other touchscreen devices. It remains unclear if counselors had access to devices capable of receiving emergency alerts or if the camp was equipped with a NOAA weather radio.

When asked why nearby summer camps had not been evacuated promptly, Kelly responded to journalists, “I can’t provide an answer for that.”

A Shrinking Government Role

The recent floods have reignited concerns among scientists and disaster response experts about the impact of the Trump administration’s reductions in federal agencies responsible for managing extreme weather events.

The hurricane season started last month amid general disarray within NOAA and FEMA. Specialists warn that smaller-scale disasters, such as severe thunderstorms and floods, are likely to overburden the federal disaster response capabilities this summer.

This is occurring as extreme rainfall events and floods become more severe due to climate change.

The record rainfall that caused the Texas floods is a prime example of the type of event that is becoming more frequent in a warming climate, according to Swain. “So, it’s not a matter of if climate change played a role—it’s a matter of how significant that role was.”

The ongoing issue of staffing shortages at the National Weather Service is a concern at many of its offices nationwide. The Trump administration also recently reduced funding that supported NWS warning coordination meteorologists in their travel for meetings and simulations with local officials, according to Fahy. These sessions are crucial for NWS staff and local emergency managers to collaborate and prepare for extreme weather events.

“We can’t predict where the next severe storm or significant weather event will occur,” Fahy stated. “Therefore, we urge the administration to reconsider their decision to cut funding for these critical positions.”

Uncertainty also continues to surround the future of the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

President Donald Trump has repeatedly pledged to restructure FEMA in ways that might shift more of the financial burden of responding to extreme weather events onto states. He has also ignored 12 requests for federal disaster aid submitted by governors since mid-May, according to federal records.

However, Trump approved disaster aid on Sunday for Kerr County, which will support recovery efforts and help residents pay for emergency accommodations, home repairs, and essential supplies. This was his first disaster declaration since June 19, when he authorized aid for parts of Tennessee affected by tornadoes in April.

Texas Governor Greg Abbott (R) stated his administration would collaborate with FEMA to evaluate the overall damage and determine if additional counties qualify for FEMA assistance.

When questioned by reporters on Sunday about his plans to phase out FEMA, Trump evaded the question.

“Well, FEMA is currently busy with ongoing work, so we’ll discuss that at another time,” he said.

Reporter Thomas Frank contributed.

Reprinted from E&E News with permission from POLITICO, LLC. Copyright 2025. E&E News provides essential news for energy and environment professionals.