As 2024 comes to a close, the sun is going out with a series of spectacular events. On December 29, it unleashed three intense solar flares. Additionally, a couple of massive ejections of solar material are hurtling through space and might light up the skies with auroras, just in time for New Year celebrations around the globe.
Solar flares are ranked based on their x-ray brightness at peak intensity, with X-class flares being the most extreme. The sun displayed three of these potent flares on December 29 at 2:18 A.M., 11:14 P.M., and 11:31 P.M. EST, as reported by NASA. These eruptions are part of ongoing intense solar activity, which has been highlighted by dramatic auroras visible as far south as Florida earlier in May and October this year.
The sun operates on an 11-year cycle influenced by its magnetic fields. “The sun acts like a massive magnet, and its magnetic fields control most solar activities,” explains Maria Kazachenko, a heliophysicist at the University of Colorado Boulder and the National Solar Observatory.
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Researchers track solar activity by counting the dark spots on the sun’s surface known as sunspots. Each sunspot contains a concentrated magnetic field and can be as large as Earth. A process known as magnetic reconnection, which involves sudden shifts in these magnetic fields, can release massive amounts of energy, resulting in a solar flare. However, the precise triggers of these magnetic reconnections remain a mystery.
“It’s challenging to directly measure conditions within a solar flare with our current tools,” Kazachenko notes. Moreover, a magnetic reconnection at one sunspot can initiate a similar event in another, potentially far away, leading to what is called a sympathetic eruption. “We often observe flares that happen in clusters,” she adds. The two flares that erupted on Sunday evening are an example, involving sunspots on opposite sides of the sun’s equator and occurring less than 20 minutes apart.
While flares themselves are merely massive bursts of radiation, auroras usually require the release of a plasma bubble from the sun, known as a coronal mass ejection (CME). The occurrence of a CME can vary depending on the magnetic interactions during the flare. Sometimes the sun’s magnetic fields contain the material, while at other times they expel large amounts of plasma into space. The latter scenario increases the likelihood of spectacular auroras, according to Kazachenko.
On December 29, all three significant flares were accompanied by CMEs. Whether these will generate auroras is still uncertain. However, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center has issued a geomagnetic storm watch for December 31 and January 1, suggesting possible aurora sightings over the northern U.S. and into the lower Midwest.
Forecasting these events is complicated by several factors. Only two of the CMEs are on trajectories that might impact Earth, and even these could merely glance off, making it difficult to predict their effects. Additionally, for an aurora to materialize, the magnetic field of the incoming plasma must align oppositely to Earth’s magnetic field, otherwise, the plasma will pass by without much interaction, Kazachenko explains.
The recent solar activity aligns with predictions from experts who have been closely monitoring the sun’s activity cycle. In an October press briefing, it was confirmed that the sun is in the peak phase of this cycle, expected to last well into 2025.
“We anticipate this peak phase could extend three to four years,” said Lisa Upton, a solar scientist at the Southwest Research Institute. “We are currently two years into this maximum phase, expecting at least another year of heightened activity before it begins to wane.”
As the solar maximum continues, more solar and geomagnetic storms are expected, offering further chances to witness auroras in the coming months, noted NASA scientist Kelly Korreck at the press conference.
While solar eruptions can pose risks to satellites, astronauts, and even Earth’s power grids, the scientific community is excited about the insights gained from this cycle, particularly with new solar observation technologies now online. “This year has been incredible,” Kazachenko remarks. “We’re experiencing this solar maximum with a new array of instruments, ushering in a golden age of solar multimessenger astronomy.”
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Cameron Aldridge combines a scientific mind with a knack for storytelling. Passionate about discoveries and breakthroughs, Cameron unravels complex scientific advancements in a way that’s both informative and entertaining.