For generations, human ambition has stretched the limits of our relationship with nature, from burgeoning industrial capabilities to deep-sea explorations. Recently, this ambition has expanded skyward, leading to a potential pollution of space previously unseen. A new delivery of technology to space, including a set of 24 satellites from Amazon aimed at providing internet from space, underscores the ongoing challenges our society faces. These large satellite groups, such as Amazon’s, could drastically change how the night sky looks and is used, and we’re still without viable solutions.

On the evening of April 28 at 7:01 p.m. EDT, an Atlas V rocket launched from Cape Canaveral, Florida. It carried the first 27 satellites of Amazon’s ambitious plan to deploy a total of 3,200 satellites, a project initiated by Jeff Bezos and known as Project Kuiper. These satellites aim to offer internet connectivity to isolated areas lacking ground infrastructure, like rural regions or aircraft.

Amazon isn’t the only player in this arena. SpaceX, led by Elon Musk, has already sent over 7,000 flat satellites, each about the size of a car, into orbit as part of its Starlink network, with plans to send up to 30,000 more. The service has accumulated over 5 million subscribers globally, with U.S. residential plans costing between $80 and $120 monthly. Customers also pay $349 for a satellite dish to connect to the network. This translates to significant monthly revenue, potentially reaching billions as the service grows and user numbers increase. Amazon is keen to tap into this lucrative market.

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Estimates suggest that Project Kuiper could cost Amazon around $20 billion. “Amazon wouldn’t be pouring nearly $20 billion into this if they didn’t see a multibillion-dollar opportunity,” states Tim Farrar, a satellite communications expert based in California. Indeed, Amazon’s CEO Andy Jassy has previously mentioned that he sees Project Kuiper as becoming a major pillar for the company, alongside its e-commerce platform, cloud services, and Amazon Prime memberships.

In its race to compete with Starlink, Amazon is securing launches on numerous rockets, including those from SpaceX, to rapidly deploy its satellites. This urgency is partly driven by the conditions of Amazon’s FCC license, which requires the company to have half of its planned 3,200 satellites in orbit by July 2026, with the rest to follow by July 2029.

Starlink has significantly altered the space around Earth. In May 2019, when the first Starlink satellites were launched, there were fewer than 2,000 active satellites in orbit. Today, that number has ballooned to over 11,000, with the majority being part of the Starlink network. This includes 648 satellites from European company Eutelsat’s OneWeb service and 72 satellites from China’s burgeoning Qianfan constellation, which could expand to 14,000 satellites. This rapid increase raises serious concerns about managing these objects. “Every day we enter uncharted territory,” remarks Hugh Lewis, a space debris expert at the University of Southampton in England.

Project Kuiper is set to orbit slightly above Starlink, at altitudes ranging from 370 to 390 miles (590 to 630 kilometers), compared to Starlink’s 340 miles (550 kilometers). Both constellations plan for ongoing replenishment as satellites fail or reach the end of their lifespan, with SpaceX launching batches of Starlink satellites several times a month. This means that Kuiper and Starlink satellites will often cross paths, creating a significant potential for chaos.

Currently, the entire Starlink constellation performs about 50,000 collision avoidance maneuvers every six months, as reported by SpaceX. In these instances, a Starlink satellite moves to avoid a possible collision with another object in orbit. Amazon has yet to announce its own automated system for collision avoidance, and neither company responded to requests for comment from Scientific American. However, with the introduction of Project Kuiper and other mega constellations, the number of close approaches among all satellites could rise to “tens or even hundreds of millions” annually, according to Lewis. “Eventually, one of these is going to bite us,” he warns.

A collision between two satellites would be catastrophic. In 2009, the collision between the U.S. Iridium 33 satellite and the defunct Russian satellite Kosmos 2251 generated thousands of debris pieces, some of which will remain in orbit for a century. The greatest danger of another collision is the resulting debris, which could lead to additional collisions as more satellites are launched. “It won’t be like WALL·E,” states Victoria Samson, director of space security and stability at the Secure World Foundation, referencing the 2008 Pixar film about a future Earth surrounded by space junk. “But eventually, it’s going to become incredibly complex to operate in low-Earth orbit.” Moreover, the vast number of satellites being launched will eventually need to reenter Earth’s atmosphere, potentially depleting the ozone layer.

Efforts to regulate the rapid expansion of satellite launches have been slow. There are currently no formal international laws or organizations tasked with monitoring or regulating the number of satellites in orbit. “We are not at all prepared for the influx of so many satellites,” says Michelle Hanlon, a space lawyer at the University of Mississippi. “The international community struggles to agree on anything. We need a dedicated space corridor or space arbitration to centralize these issues under one jurisdiction. Right now, we have nothing.” She warns that a serious incident, such as an actual collision, might be necessary to prompt meaningful regulatory action.

The issue also extends to astronomy. For years, astronomers have been dealing with the impact of Starlink on their observations of the cosmos. The numerous satellites in the mega constellation create bright streaks in images from Earth-based and some space telescopes. Samantha Lawler, an astronomer at the University of Regina in Saskatchewan, finds many of her images ruined by satellites crossing her field of view. “I find it horrifying,” she says. “All of the predicted downsides are coming to pass, and we still lack regulation.”

Bright satellite streaks not only obstruct scientific research by hiding celestial bodies like asteroids, planets, and stars, but they also alter the natural aesthetics of the night sky. “One of the main recommendations from the IAU [International Astronomical Union] is to keep satellites below a brightness of magnitude 7,” explains Olivier Hainaut, an astronomer at the European Southern Observatory in Germany. “That means they wouldn’t be visible to the naked eye.” One telescope likely to be affected is the Vera C. Rubin Observatory in Chile, which has a large camera designed to image the entire sky every three days starting later this year. However, satellite trails could disrupt a third of its images, severely impacting its scientific output.

While SpaceX has had moderate success in dimming Starlink satellites by applying a dark coating or using a sunshade to reduce sunlight reflection, other satellites, like those in China’s Qianfan constellation, are even brighter and more concerning, according to Lawler. Radio astronomy is also impacted by signals from satellites. The challenges for astronomers are mounting, with no clear solutions in sight. “Five years ago, we were blissfully unaware,” Hainaut remarks.

The ultimate brightness of Kuiper satellites will not be known until a few weeks after their initial launch, when they reach their operational altitude. By then, subsequent Kuiper launches may have already occurred. Providing widespread internet from space is a noble goal that could benefit many on Earth. However, as our space infrastructure expands without clear regulations, the potential for disaster grows. “At some point, we have to stop launching these constellations,” Hanlon asserts, either until clear regulations are established or until a worst-case scenario occurs, such as a collision between two satellites. “I hope we figure it out.”