Several states in the U.S. are currently experiencing measles outbreaks, and recent reports from Texas health authorities confirm the death of a second child from lung failure due to the disease. The eight-year-old victim was healthy prior to the infection and had not been vaccinated with the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine, which is highly effective in preventing the disease.

In other regions, the number of measles cases has sharply increased this week in states like Kansas, Hawaii, Colorado, Indiana, and Michigan. Additionally, a rise in measles cases in Ontario has prompted travel warnings in New York State, and recent cases in Mexico have been linked back to the U.S. outbreaks.

As the outbreaks continue to spread and the battle against the disease nears its third month, public health experts are concerned that measles, which had been nearly eradicated in the U.S. for over twenty-five years, might regain a foothold in the country.

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Peter Marks, a prominent vaccine expert who recently stepped down from his role at the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, told NBC News that the U.S. is on the brink of losing its measles elimination status. This status was achieved through extensive MMR vaccine coverage.

Status of Measles Elimination in the U.S.

A disease is deemed “eliminated” when there are no endemic cases reported within a region for a certain period, typically twelve months according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization. This standard requires that there be no continuous transmission chain for a year or longer, as explained by Amy Winter, an epidemiologist and demographer at the University of Georgia College of Public Health.

The U.S. achieved measles elimination status in 2000 and has maintained it largely due to high vaccination rates. “It’s quite remarkable and worthy of applause that we’ve managed to eliminate and keep the disease at bay within our borders,” Winter commented.

The MMR vaccine is tremendously effective, with a single dose providing 93 percent protection, and two doses offering 97 percent protection against measles. Similarly, polio has been eliminated in the U.S., mainly due to effective vaccination.

Measles can still appear in the U.S. through individuals traveling from areas where the disease has not been eliminated, sparking brief outbreaks. The CDC notes that these cases often originate from unvaccinated travelers, the majority of whom are U.S. citizens.

“All the measles cases in the U.S. stem from international sources, whether by Americans contracting the disease abroad or by foreigners visiting and spreading it here,” stated Walter Orenstein, an epidemiologist and professor emeritus at Emory University. “A major concern of mine is the lack of support for global vaccination efforts, which would benefit other countries and enhance our own health security.”

Is Measles Eradication Possible?

“Eradication” means the complete global elimination of a disease. The only human disease that has been eradicated so far is smallpox. “What we accomplished with smallpox, during my time in India in 1974-1975, was halting its transmission in other countries, thereby preventing its re-entry into our country,” Orenstein explained. Because smallpox is eradicated, there’s no longer a need for general public vaccination.

“While eradicating measles is challenging due to its high contagiousness, maintaining our elimination status is feasible with high vaccination rates in our communities,” Orenstein added.

Could the U.S. Lose Its Measles Elimination Status?

Given the high transmissibility of measles, achieving and maintaining high levels of immunity is crucial, Orenstein noted. Even minor decreases in herd immunity can lead to outbreaks, potentially jeopardizing the elimination status.

The U.S. nearly lost its measles elimination status in 2019 during a prolonged outbreak in New York State, which lasted from January to October, according to William Moss from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health’s International Vaccine Access Center. “The current outbreaks in 2025 are notable for their rapid expansion and increase in cases,” Moss stated during a media briefing on vaccines. “It’s uncertain whether this outbreak will persist for a year, but it poses a real threat to our elimination status if not addressed by increasing vaccination coverage.”

Frontline health officials, including Katherine Wells, the public health director of Lubbock, Texas, have expressed concerns that the current outbreaks might continue throughout the year.

“Elimination means protection not only for those vaccinated but also for those who cannot be vaccinated or those who do not respond well to vaccination,” Orenstein emphasized. “And contrary to what some may believe, natural contraction of measles is harmful, not a trivial matter.”

Additional reporting by Meghan Bartels.