What’s the most recent film you caught at a cinema? My visits have become infrequent, as I find myself drawn more to TV series, especially those involving espionage (I’m open to suggestions!). However, I make exceptions for major hits like the Dune series. There’s something uniquely thrilling about watching a grand narrative unfold on a massive screen.

The number of people going to movies took a nosedive in 2020 due to the COVID-19 outbreak. Although there has been a rebound in subsequent years, attendance hasn’t fully recovered to pre-pandemic figures. Factors such as inflation, the surge in streaming platforms like Netflix, and the popularity of high-quality TV shows have all influenced this trend. Consequently, cinemas are under greater pressure to pull in audiences. Interestingly, mathematics might offer some solutions.

In 2020, Ganna Pogrebna, a British data scientist, along with her team, published research that scrutinized the revenue, costs, and popularity of over 6,000 films. Their study revealed patterns in movie narratives that correlate with both audience preferences and financial success.

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The Art of Storytelling: From Aristotle to Hollywood

This recent study builds on prior work by researchers from the University of Vermont and the University of Adelaide in Australia, who explored the structure of literary plots. Their findings suggest that most narratives fit into a few recurring emotional patterns.

This concept dates back to ancient times. Aristotle, over two millennia ago, pondered the mechanics of storytelling and its impact on audiences. In the 20th century, Kurt Vonnegut delved into the emotional highs and lows of famous stories by mapping their trajectories of joy and despair.

Inspired by Vonnegut’s “story shapes,” the team from Vermont and Adelaide analyzed 1,327 works from Project Gutenberg’s fiction collection using an algorithm, identifying six dominant emotional arcs (beware, spoilers ahead!):

From Misery to Wealth

These tales typically begin with the protagonist in dire straits, who then gradually improves their circumstances. A prime example from film is Groundhog Day, where the main character repeatedly lives the same day, slowly learning and improving his situation.

Tragedy: From Prosperity to Despair

Conversely, these stories start with the characters in a good place, but end in calamity. Consider Romeo and Juliet, where a loving relationship tragically ends with the death of both lovers.

The Fall and Rise

Here, the protagonist starts well, faces a downturn, but ultimately ends up better off. The Godfather is illustrative; it begins with the powerful Corleone family, which faces grave threats before Michael rises to unprecedented power.

Icarus: Highs to Lows

This narrative mirrors the ‘Fall and Rise,’ but ends in downfall. In Titanic, for instance, DiCaprio’s character experiences a brief, exhilarating romance before meeting a tragic end.

Cinderella: Temporary Triumph

Such stories feature an initial improvement in the protagonist’s life, a setback, and then a triumphant recovery, often ending ‘happily ever after.’ The film Babe represents this pattern, with the titular pig overcoming several challenges to ultimately succeed.

Oedipus: The Inevitable Downfall

These narratives start positively but spiral into a series of worsening disasters, typically ending in misery. Classic literary examples include Frankenstein and Hamlet, both featuring protagonists whose fortunes take bleak turns.

The team aimed to determine if feature films follow these emotional arcs and which patterns are most lucrative. They analyzed the emotional content of movie dialogues by assessing the sentiment of words and sentences in over 6,000 films.

To categorize the narratives, they devised a method to measure the emotional distance between the arcs of different movies, allowing them to group films with similar emotional trajectories.

Their analysis confirmed that nearly all movies fit one of the identified emotional arcs. Additionally, they discovered that the type of emotional arc often correlates with the movie’s genre: for instance, horrors typically follow the Tragedy arc, while comedies often fit into Cinderella or Man in a Hole narratives.

Evaluating Film Success

The research team gathered financial and audience data from industry sources like The Numbers and IMDb. They found that movies with a Man in a Hole arc, on average, earned the most at the box office, followed by Cinderella narratives.

Interestingly, simpler Rags to Riches stories generated the least revenue. This suggests that while audiences appreciate a straightforward success story, they are more drawn to films where characters overcome significant obstacles.

Popularity vs. Profitability

However, when examining IMDb ratings, a different trend appeared. Films with a Man in a Hole plot, while financially successful, typically received lower ratings compared to other arcs. This indicates that while these movies draw big crowds, they may not always achieve the same level of viewer satisfaction.

This data provides valuable insights for filmmakers. To maximize box office draw, focusing on Man in a Hole stories seems wise. However, for critical success and audience approval, the heart-wrenching narratives of tragedies and complex emotional journeys like those in Cinderella stories are preferable.