The Atlantic hurricane season kicks off on June 1, and predictions suggest it could be an active one.

While specific storm predictions are uncertain at this stage, the combination of conducive environmental conditions for hurricanes and recent federal budget cuts has raised concerns among experts about forecast accuracy and community safety. Scientific American spoke with various forecasters and hurricane researchers about their primary concerns for the season.

Heightened Hurricane Activity Expected Due to Warm Oceans

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Predictions for the season, including those from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), suggest a higher than average number of storms. NOAA forecasts 13 to 19 named storms, with winds of 39 to 74 miles per hour or higher. Of these, six to 10 may escalate into hurricanes, with winds exceeding 74 mph. Furthermore, three to five of these could become major hurricanes, with wind speeds ranging from 111 to 129 mph or higher, categorizing them as Category 3 or above on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

The expectation of an active season is due to a favorable atmospheric environment and an abundance of ocean heat, which fuels storms. Currently, there is no El Niño present to disrupt storm formation through wind patterns, according to Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, whose team also issues annual forecasts.

Additionally, Gulf of Mexico waters are exceptionally warm, providing ideal conditions for the development of tropical cyclones. “Over 60 percent of the Gulf exhibits record or near-record warmth for this time of year, and areas east of Florida and around the Bahamas also show unusually high temperatures,” notes Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist at WPLG Local 10 News in Miami. This can lead to rapid storm intensification just before landfall, leaving less time for community preparation, a significant concern for Jill Trepanier at Louisiana State University.

This pattern has been evident in recent years, including during Hurricanes Beryl and Milton last season. “The persistent high temperatures in the Gulf are a troubling trend that has been driving the frequency of intense hurricanes along the Gulf Coast for the last decade,” Lowry explains. This is in line with studies indicating a significant increase in the Gulf’s capacity to support severe hurricanes over the past 42 years.

The abundance of warm water may lead to early-season storm activity, even before the peak in September, says Marshall Shepherd, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Georgia.

This year’s conditions show some variations from recent seasons. “The deep tropical Atlantic waters east of the Caribbean, which often indicate overall hurricane activity, are the coolest at the start of a season since 2021,” Lowry points out. However, they are still warm enough to support above-average activity.

Despite the forecast for a busier-than-normal season, it’s not expected to reach the levels of recent years. Klotzbach expresses concern that this might lead to complacency among the public.

Communities Struggling to Rebuild

As a new hurricane season starts, many communities are still dealing with the aftermath of previous storms, including those from last year like Helene, Milton, and Debby, affecting areas in Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas, according to Shepherd.

A report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine last year highlighted that the Gulf Coast is particularly vulnerable, having experienced seven hurricanes in just two years, 2020 and 2021.

It’s very likely that some regions recently hit could be in the path of new storms this season. “With forecasts predicting average to above-average activity, just one storm could exacerbate the already dire situations in many areas,” Shepherd warns.

Budget Cuts Impact NWS and FEMA

Adding to the concerns is the impact of significant funding and staffing reductions at the National Weather Service (NWS) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). “The consequences of diminished staffing in key NOAA offices are yet to be fully realized,” notes Brian McNoldy, a tropical storm researcher at the University of Miami. “The loss of expertise, data collection, and continuous monitoring could be critical during high-impact events.”

While the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is responsible for tracking storms and issuing forecasts, local NWS offices provide vital localized warnings about storm surges, floods, and winds. Many of these offices, including those in Houston and Miami, are currently understaffed, according to Jeff Masters, a writer at Yale Climate Connections and a former Hurricane Hunter with NOAA. The NWS has been forced to request staff from other regions to fill these gaps.

Additionally, budget cuts have led to fewer weather balloon launches, which are crucial for understanding the broader atmospheric conditions that influence hurricane paths and necessary precautions, Lowry and Masters report.

On a positive note, Trepanier is pleased about the reinstatement of the Hurricane Hunters, a team of meteorologists who fly into storms to gather data that significantly enhances forecast accuracy. “Although it doesn’t fully mitigate my concerns, it’s a step in the right direction,” she comments.

James Franklin, the former chief of the NHC’s Hurricane Specialist Unit, is worried about the cancellation of training sessions for emergency managers earlier this year. This could leave regions less prepared and less informed about how to respond based on forecasts. “Reduced training increases the likelihood of errors in emergency management,” he notes.

Moreover, there are significant concerns about the government’s ability to respond effectively to disasters. Masters’ greatest fear is that FEMA may not be equipped to handle a major disaster under current conditions.

Reports from CNN and other news sources have revealed internal FEMA memos detailing a loss of 30 percent of its full-time staff. “I authored the plan FEMA uses for hurricane response,” says Lowry, a former employee of both the NHC and FEMA, “and it’s challenging to see how the agency can fulfill its critical mission this season with such reduced staffing and without an updated plan.”